By Fancy Dan Oakley
Happy opening day to all who celebrate.
OVC basketball is back, all nine teams are playing, and we finally get to watch the players we have spent the offseason talking about. The previews are written. The predictions are out. Now somebody has to go grab a rebound.
I am excited. I am also asking for a brief grace period before anyone starts dragging my preseason takes. Everybody is undefeated, everybody’s transfers look promising, and every team has a perfectly reasonable explanation for why this is going to be their year.
We are all correct until tomorrow. Please respect that.
Here is how I am picking the opening-day slate.
Spreads below reflect the numbers selected earlier today. Lines vary by sportsbook and can move before tipoff. All times are Central.
Tennessee State vs. Murray State
10:30 a.m. | Pick: Tennessee State +9.5
Basketball before lunch feels like a reward for making it through the offseason.
Nolan Smith went 23–10 in his first season at Tennessee State, but only four players return from that championship team. There is plenty of talent coming in and plenty to figure out, starting immediately against Murray State.
I expect some opening-day mistakes. On a neutral floor, though, I am comfortable taking 9.5 points with the Tigers. They do not have to have everything figured out this morning to keep this competitive.
Eastern Illinois at Indiana
6 p.m. | Pick: Eastern Illinois +34.5
Eastern Illinois gets right to the difficult portion of the schedule.
One player worth watching is Jaden Miller, who led Division II with 8.3 assists per game last season. His ability to organize the offense will get an immediate test in Bloomington.
Indiana should win this game. Covering 34.5 is a separate assignment. I am taking the Panthers and hoping Miller can help them put together enough controlled possessions to stay inside a very large number.
Eureka at SIUE
6 p.m. | Pick: SIUE to win outright
There is no verified spread for this one, so this is an outright winner pick.
SIUE finished its exhibition schedule with a 53–48 win at Bradley. One preseason game does not establish a defensive trend, but holding an opponent to 48 is an encouraging place to start.
The Cougars should handle business at home. I am interested in seeing how their returning pieces and newcomers share the workload once the games count.
Lipscomb at Southeast Missouri
6:30 p.m. | Pick: SEMO +2.5
This is one of my favorite games on the opening-night schedule.
Marqueas Bell is SEMO’s leading returning scorer after averaging 9.1 points last season. He also scored 22 in the Redhawks’ exhibition win over Evansville.
Lipscomb has won three straight meetings in this series, so SEMO has some work to do. I like the home court and Bell’s encouraging preseason performance enough to take the Redhawks with the points.
Morehead State at Western Kentucky
6:30 p.m. | Pick: Western Kentucky -16.5
These programs have not played each other since 1985. That is a fun historical detail, although I doubt either coaching staff is spending much time reviewing that film.
The more relevant number is 25.6: the points per game Morehead State brings back from last season’s roster.
Jonathan Mattox has earned respect for what he has done at Morehead. Replacing that much scoring while opening on the road is still a difficult assignment. I am leaning Western Kentucky to create enough separation.
Southern Indiana at Belmont
6:30 p.m. | Pick: Belmont -17.5
Southern Indiana brings back three players and adds 11 transfers. There are going to be a lot of new combinations to sort through.
Kaden Brown’s expected return is a reason for optimism. He averaged 11 points before his season-ending injury last January, and having him available would give the Eagles a familiar scoring option.
I want to see USI’s new group together before getting too comfortable backing it on the road. For opening night, I am taking Belmont.
Lindenwood at TCU
7 p.m. | Pick: Lindenwood +28.5
Lindenwood lost its exhibition against Southern Illinois by four, with Malek Archie, Xavier Spencer and Marsai Mason each scoring 14.
An exhibition result only tells us so much. Still, having several players capable of contributing gives me a little more confidence when taking this many points.
TCU presents a much tougher assignment. I am picking Lindenwood to keep the margin inside 28.5, which leaves considerable room between a competitive betting result and an actual upset.
UT Martin at Tulane
7 p.m. | Pick: UT Martin +8.5
Jeremy Shulman has already won road openers at Illinois State and UNLV during his first two seasons at UT Martin.
That history does not travel onto the court and score points for this year’s team. It does give me some confidence that his group will be prepared for the assignment.
Davi Remagen and Kaan Onat make this backcourt especially interesting. There will be adjustments with so many newcomers, but I like the Skyhawks getting 8.5.
Western Illinois at Valparaiso
7 p.m. | Pick: Western Illinois +18.5
Feels like everybody is on Valpo. I am going the other way.
Western’s added size is a big part of why I am leaning toward the Leathernecks today. Against a young Valpo team, I think that gives Western a chance to make this more competitive than the number suggests.
There is plenty for WIU to prove after last season. I am willing to take the points while we find out what this version of the team looks like.
Give me Western +18.5. We can discuss my judgment tomorrow.
Let’s Get in the Gym
Nine teams. Nine games. An entire season ahead of us.
Some of these picks will look smart tonight. Some may require me to put my phone down for a little while. Either way, we finally have actual basketball to talk about.
Welcome back, OVC basketball. I missed you.
And until the results come in, I stand by every word.